当前位置:主页 > 技术文章 >

技术文章

Technical articles

电动无人驾驶汽车的未来

时间:2021-08-24 05:43 点击次数:
  本文摘要:Cars attracted frenzied speculation from the start. As Warren Buffett likes to point out, most investors got burnt: of 2,000 US car companies at the start of the 20th century three endured. “Of course, the thing you should have been doing,

欧洲杯线上买球

Cars attracted frenzied speculation from the start. As Warren Buffett likes to point out, most investors got burnt: of 2,000 US car companies at the start of the 20th century three endured. “Of course, the thing you should have been doing,” the Sage of Omaha has remarked more than once, “was shorting horses.”汽车从一开始就更拥有恐怖的投机性主题活动。如同沃伦?股神巴菲特(Warren Buffett)反感觉得的那般,大部分投资人严重损失:在20世纪初2000家英国汽车企业中,仅有3家果断了出来。“自然,你本理应保证的一件事是,”这名奥马哈圣贤(Sage of Omaha)不止一次地说道,“看空(汽车面世前托车的)马。”Investors are once more captivated by cars, this time electric and autonomous ones. Unlike 100 years ago, however, there are not 2,000 companies on which to bet. Some might look to Google parent Alphabet or Apple, the technology groups for whom cars are just a large research cost; most, though, alight on Tesla, the electric carmaker.现如今,投资人再一次为汽车著迷,这一次是电动式汽车和自动驾驶汽车。

与100年前各有不同,如今没2000家企业能够下注。一些人很有可能会看上谷歌(Google)总公司Alphabet或iPhone(Apple),针对这种高新科技集团公司来讲,汽车仅仅一项高额科学研究成本费;殊不知,大部分人热烈欢迎电动式汽车生产商特斯拉(Tesla)。Yet it is not certain that Tesla has the staying power of a General Motors rather than the shorter life of a Winton Motor Carriage Company or one of the other original also-rans. And while the market seems to have identified traditional carmakers as the “horses”, they are not heading for the knacker’s yard and could adapt to a new market.殊不知,如今还没法确定特斯拉否不具有通用性汽车(General Motors)那般的性持久,而不是像某一Winton Motor Carriage Company或是别的最开始的浅薄公司之一那般短寿。

此外,虽然销售市场也许将传统式汽车生产商看作“马”,但他们未南北方士兵坐骑屠宰厂,只是基本上有可能适应能力新的销售市场。At Tesla, chief executive Elon Musk is a magnetic evangelist for his company, convincing shareholders to supply more cash to fund factories and cars. They have poured in more than $7bn since the 2010 initial public offering. Additional shares bring dilution which should reduce the price, but it has marched higher, up 50 per cent this year. Even analysts at Goldman Sachs, Tesla’s preferred underwriter for the share sales, now reckon no one should buy them: its price target of $180 is almost 50 per cent below the current level.在特斯拉,CEO埃隆马斯克?埃隆马斯克(Elon Musk)是他企业的一位富有风采的传道士,善于劝导公司股东取走更为多资产来为加工厂和汽车股权融资。自二零一零年初次公开发行(IPO)至今,她们已推广逾70亿美金。更强的个股将造成融解具有,理应不容易降低股票价格,但该企业股票价格却昂首阔步往前,近年来下挫50%。

就连特斯拉瞩目的个股开售主承销高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)的投资分析师如今也强调,谁都不应该购买这种个股:其股票价格总体目标为180美元,比当今价格便宜近一半。With a $50bn valuation despite no profits, negative free cash flow and frequently missed delivery targets, Tesla is a compelling counterpoint to the complaint that markets are fixated on the short term. It has lost money every year since going public in 2010 and burnt almost $7bn of cash along the way. Despite promising to reach positive free cash flow, Tesla has only achieved it in four of 34 quarters: capital spending usually overwhelms the cash coming in.虽然没盈利,支配权现金流量为负数并且再三错过交付给总体目标,但特斯拉的公司估值达到500亿美金。

这一点是对“销售市场瞩目股票短线”这一见解的强有力反驳。自二零一零年发售至今,该企业每年亏本,期间损坏了近70亿美金资产。虽然应允将搭建正数的支配权现金流量,但在34个一季度中,特斯拉仅有4个一季度搭建了这一总体目标:资本开支一般来说高达推广的资产。

Listen to Mr Musk at the annual meeting last month and that is not a surprise. He swept from solar roof tiles to powering a Hawaiian island, to a plan for a car that would drive itself from California to New York without any human intervention, to 20 vast “gigafactories” producing batteries, to a prototype truck that would be unveiled in September.说出埃隆马斯克在上个月年大会上的发言,这一点会令人车祸事故。他侃侃而谈,从太阳能屋顶瓦块说道到为美国夏威夷一海岛供电系统,谈及一辆自动驾驶汽车在没人力资源干预的状况下从美国加州的进到纽约市的方案,谈及20家生产制造充电电池的丰厚“千兆网卡加工厂”,还谈及将在2020年10月现身的一款货车样车。“It’s not inconceivable I would do an electric plane,” he said, adding: “no, I’m not saying we’re going to add a nuclear fusion reactor. I’m just saying it fits.”“并不是不能想像的是,我想产品研发一种电动飞机,”他答复,他还补充称作:“不,我没说道我们要再加一个核反应核反应堆。我只是说道它合适。

”Yet Tesla delivered only 76,000 cars last year. Morgan Stanley analysts forecast it will not surpass 1米 until 2028. Toyota, Volkswagen and GM each produce about 十米 cars a year out of global sales of 90m. For the Model 3, its new mass-market car priced at $35,000, Tesla has said it will produce 5,000 a week at some point in 2017 and 10,000 a week at some point in 2018. There were 400,000 initial deposits of $1,000. But the deposits are refundable and the car is not yet on the roads, though it says it will be delivered on schedule.殊不知,特斯拉上年仅有交付给了7.六万辆汽车。摩根斯坦利(Morgan Stanley)投资分析师预测分析,其生产量在2028年以前会高达一百万辆。

丰田汽车(Toyota)、大家(Volkswagen)和通用性汽车(GM)分别的汽车总产量都超出1000万台上下,而全世界汽车销售量为9000万台。针对价钱为3.5万美元、朝向大家的最新款汽车Model 3,特斯拉答复,17年某日将超出每星期生产制造5000辆,2018某日将超出每星期生产制造一万辆。

现在有四十万人交纳了1000美金的订金。但这种订金能够偿还,而这个汽车还即将上市,虽然特斯拉答复将按照计划交付给。Seeking to rein in demand, even Mr Musk is imploring people not to buy it; orders placed now do not have hope of delivery until the end of 2018.为了更好地操控市场的需求,就连埃隆马斯克都劝导大家不必售卖;如今提交的订单信息没期待在2018底以前交付给。38% The share of the market held by electric cars in 1900. Thomas Edison the inventor, above, worked on electric car batteries throughout the first decade of the 20th century.38% 二十世纪电动式汽车的市场份额。

By then there will be more competition. GM has shown with the Chevy Bolt that it can make an electric car with both a range — 238 miles on one charge — and a pricetag similar to the Model 3.到那时候,市场竞争将更加日趋激烈。通用性汽车已用雪弗兰Bolt(Chevy Bolt)证实,其必须生产制造一款在里程数(差役一次电经行238公里)和价钱上与Model 3类似的电动式汽车。

If the Bolt falls short on style, th en companies including BMW, Daimler, Nissan and VW will deliver more alluring models in the next two years. VW plans 10 new models by then and for electric vehicles to account for 20-25 per cent of sales by 2025. Honda wants two-thirds of its vehicles to be partly electric-powered by 2030, a goal that includes petrol/electric hybrids such as the Accord. Volvo went a step further this week, announcing the end of the purely petrol engine in its cars from 2019. Having previously focused on hydrogen fuel cell technology, Toyota, too, is ramping up its electric ambitions.假如说雪弗兰Bolt在款式上过度诱惑得话,那麼还包含宝马五系(BMW)、戴姆勒公司(Daimler)、曰产(Nissan)、大家以内的汽车企业都将在接下去2年开售更为有诱惑力的车系。大家方案在这段时间开售10款新汽车,并使电动式汽车销售量到2030年占据总销售量的20%至25%。广州本田(Honda)期待到未来十年集团旗下三分之二的汽车搭建一部分由电力工程驱动器,这一总体目标还包含本田雅阁(Accord)等油电混合动力动力车。

volvo(Volvo)更进一步,近期宣布从今年起中止生产制造装有显发动机的汽车。先前专心致志于氢电池技术性的丰田汽车,也在扩大产品研发电动式汽车的壮志。Even if the Model 3 succeeds, it is hard to imagine Tesla ever matching the sales of the biggest carmakers. Yet it is valued as if it will. VW, GM and Toyota each sell about 十米 cars a year and make a combined $34bn in net income between them. Tesla, with consistent losses and less than 1 per cent of its volume, overtook GM this year to become the most valuable US carmaker. Finding another way to live up to its enterprise value requires a leap of faith that Tesla can attain and exploit an advantage in some other technology — batteries or autonomous cars perhaps.就算Model 3大得到 成功,也难以想像特斯拉必须超出各种汽车制造商的销售量。

但从特斯拉的公司估值看来,独特它理应必须做。大家、通用汽车、丰田汽车各家的产销量都为1000万辆上下,纯利润累计340亿美金。2020年,不断亏本且生产量接近通用汽车1%的特斯拉,已替代通用汽车沦落英国总市值最少的汽车制造商。

找寻另一条方式来搭建它的企业价值评估,务必一次自信心发展,或许是特斯拉必须出示并运用别的哪些技术性——充电电池或无人驾驶汽车。This week Tesla has hit trouble; whether it is a bump in the road or something more serious remains to be seen. Weak sales data fed the narrative that potential customers were forgoing existing models and waiting for the cheaper Model 3; the shares are off almost a fifth from their recent high. More than most companies, Tesla needs its inflated stock price since it relies on the stock market for funding.近期特斯拉遭受了艰难;这是一个小曲折還是更为相当严重的难题仍仍待认真观察。不景气的销售数据造成猜想——潜在性的顾客已经撤出目前的车系,等待更为便宜的Model 3;特斯拉的股票价格已从最近的高些跌至去近五分之一。

特斯拉比大部分公司更为务必过高的股票价格,因为它要仰仗股市融资。Plenty of sceptics have lost money betting on the shares to fall. S3 Partners, a financial analytics firm which tracks short sellers, estimates their losses are $4bn this year. It does not mean the short sellers are wrong: the road to success for Tesla still looks incredibly narrow.许多怀疑者由于下注特斯拉股票价格狂跌而缴了钱。

追踪买空者的金融分析公司S3 Partners估计,她们2020年的损害将约40亿美金。这并不意味著买空者拢了:特斯拉的成功之道看起来仍极其窄小。While Tesla soars, the broader industry is being treated as if it is seriously ill, with a price/earnings multiple that is about the lowest in 20 years. Traditional carmakers have inspired no faith in their ability to adapt to new technology. Doubts are understandable. As recently as 2009, GM and Chrysler were going through bankruptcy. The emissions scandal that cost VW and other car manufacturers billions of dollars struck only two years ago.在特斯拉股票价格增涨之时,全部汽车领域仿佛被当做病入骨髓者看待,市净率正处在二十年来最低标准。

传统式汽车制造商适应能力新技术应用的工作能力没能引起一切自信心。这种顾忌能够讲解。就不在那么久以前的二零零九年,通用汽车和菲亚特经历过破产倒闭。令其大家等汽车制造商成本数十亿美元成本的有机废气舞弊丑事就再次出现在两年前。

In May, a month after Tesla overtook its market value, Ford ousted chief executive Mark Fields for failing to push fast enough into the future. GM has made bolder bets, paying $581米 for Cruise Automation, a San Francisco-based autonomous driving company; investing $1000m in Lyft, the ride-hailing company; and launching Maven, a car-sharing app, with the surprising admission that, when city dwellers buy a car, it depreciates “fairly rapidly, you use it 3 per cent of the time, and you pay a vast amount of money to park it for the other 97 per cent of the time”.2020年五月,在总市值上被特斯拉摆脱一个月后,福特解雇了CEO马可?菲尔茨(Mark Fields),原因是他没能充裕慢地带领公司向将来前行。通用汽车做出了更为胆大的下注,向总公司位于美国旧金山的无人驾驶汽车公司Cruise Automation项目投资5.81亿美金;向叫出租车公司Lyft项目投资五亿美金;开售共享资源汽车运用于Maven,并出乎意料地否定,当城镇居民售卖一辆车时,它增值“十分慢,你仅仅在3%的時间里用以它,但是为其他97%的時间花上很多钱交纳停车收费”。However, this is not being rewarded in the market any more than Ford’s more cautious approach. GM trades at a depressed multiple of five times expected earnings. Investors believe in future car technologies, but not that the current carmakers will profit.殊不知,相比福特更加谨慎的姿势,通用汽车未在销售市场上获得高些的酬劳。通用汽车个股的预估市净率仅有小小5倍。

投资人确信的是将来的汽车技术性,而不是当今的汽车制造商将不容易赢利。The same divide is reflected among suppliers. Intel paid $15bn in March for Mobileye, an Israeli company that makes sensors for driverless cars and not much in the way of profit: the price works out at more than 100 times core earnings, not dissimilar to Tesla’s valuation. Nvidia, whose chips are used in self-driving technology, has seen its shares triple in a year.某种意义的分裂也经常会出现在经销商中间。

2020年三月,intel(Intel)斥资150亿美金企业并购了为自动驾驶汽车生产制造感应器的非洲公司Mobileye:尽管该公司盈利不低,但市场价是关键赢利的100几倍,与特斯拉的公司估值有点儿类似。英伟达显卡(Nvidia)的股票价格一年里下挫了二倍,其生产制造的集成ic被作为无人驾驶技术性。Federal-Mogul on the other hand, founded in Detroit in 1899 and a maker of less glamorous parts such as pistons and gaskets, was valued at $1.7bn, just 2.5 times core earnings, when it was acquired this year by Carl Icahn.另一方面,辉门公司(Federal-Mog ul)2020年被梅帝?伊卡西利亚斯(Carl Icahn)企业并购时的公司估值为17亿美金,仅有所为关键赢利的2.5倍。

1899年宣布创立于底特律的辉门企业是一家生产制造活塞杆、密封垫片等一般零配件的生产商。Delphi, another large supplier, made the decision to split into two and was immediately rewarded with a 10 per cent increase in the stock price. Shareholders assume the advanced electronics division will be valued more attractively once shorn of the engine division.另一家大中型汽车零部件经销商德尔福(Delphi)在规定拆分成两一部分后,股票价格直接下挫10%。公司股东们强调,一旦与柴油发动机单位分离出来,技术设备电子器件单位的公司估值将具有诱惑力。

Yet the gloom surrounding the incumbents seems overdone. Ford’s free cash flow is about $13bn, enough to buy back all of its own depressed shares within three years. Low interest rates have helped prolong a period of bumper sales. US sales, which fell to a rate of 8m in 2009, remain close to 17m a year, although sales are now declining.殊不知,围绕知名汽车企业的开朗心态也许过度了。福特的支配权现金流量大概为130亿美金,不能在三年内买进其价钱较高的所有个股。

低费率帮助承袭了瘋狂市场销售。在二零零九年跌至至900万辆以后,美国汽车销售量彻底恢复来到每一年近1700万辆的水准,虽然现如今销售量在降低。President Donald Trump may enjoy torturing carmakers for their overseas plants but he is hardly going to upend their business models with tough environmental rules and incentives. Mr Trump tweeted this week: “Gas prices are the lowest in the US in over 10 years! I would like to see them go even lower.”美国美国总统杰弗里?川普(Donald Trump)或许愿意吓退在国外投资投资建厂的美国汽车制造商,但他不大可能用苛刻的环境保护政策法规和鼓励对策来政治宣传她们的运营模式。

川普前不久发文章称:“美国汽油油价正处在10很多年来的最低标准!我期待看到他们叛得更为较低。”Indeed, gas prices in the US are about $2.50 a gallon, while they have spent most of the past decade closer to $4. While investors become excited by electric cars, Ford is selling gas-guzzling pick-up trucks in record numbers.确实,美国汽油油价约为每加仑2.50美金,而以往十年的绝大多数時间都更为类似4美元。虽然投资人对电动式汽车激动不已,但福特市场销售的油耗大的皮卡车总数超出破纪录水准。

Change will come, but judging the pace is crucial. Opec, which has a vested interest, predicts that fewer than 7 per cent of vehicles on the road will be fully electric as far away as 2040. The oil producers’ cartel also assumes the number of cars will double from today to 6bn. Tech evangelists scoff at this, claiming more will be electric and more will be shared and autonomous.转型将经常会出现,但鉴别转变的脚步尤为重要。具有商业利益的石油输出国组织(Opec)预测分析,即便来到太远的2040年,走在路上经行的全电动式汽车也将接近7%。这一石油输出国卡特尔还强调,汽车总数将比如今增加一倍,超出20亿辆。

高新科技教徒答复不屑一顾,宣称电动式汽车总数将更为多,另外将有更为多汽车被共享和自动化技术。But even under more radical forecasts — UBS predicts electric vehicles, including hybrids, will account for 14 per cent of sales by 2025 — there will still be plenty of petrol-powered cars. If investors remain so down on the industry, private equity firms should be able to strike bargain deals for cash generative companies.殊不知,就算依据更为传统的预测分析(瑞银(UBS)预测分析,到2030年还包含油电混合汽车以内的电动式汽车将占据汽车总销售量的14%),還是不容易有很多以车用汽油为驱动力的汽车。假如投资人对该领域这般不寄予希望,个人总股本企业理应能以廉价企业并购造成很多现钱的企业。

And if change is more rapid, some carmakers should be better insulated than before. Steve Rattner, the “car tsar” in the Obama administration, highlights how rapidly the new threats have emerged. “I literally never heard the words ‘autonomous vehicle’ or ‘ride-sharing’,” he says of his time supervising the restructuring of GM and Chrysler in 2009, but notes that the carmakers were made to cut costs so they could break even if sales stayed at 十米 a year. That should help when the cycle turns and even cushion a more profound blow, such as more people choosing to hail or share rather than own their cars.假如转型更为迅速,一些汽车制造商理应不容易比之前不具有更优的承受能力。曾在美国奥巴马政府部门担任“汽车沙皇”的史提夫?拉特纳(Steve Rattner)觉得新的威协有可能迅速经常会出现。

他在谈起二零零九年他监管通用性汽车和菲亚特资产重组时答复,“那时候我明白不曾听到过‘无人驾驶汽车’或‘顺风拼车’。”但他觉得,这种汽车制造商被责令减缩成本费,那样假如销售量保持在每一年1000万辆得话,他们就能搭建赢亏平衡。这将在周期时间转变时有一定的帮助,乃至必须缓解更为沈重的抑制,比如更强的人随意选择手机微信或顺风拼车,而不是购车。“We may have left these companies reasonably positioned to at least hold their own financially,” says Mr Rattner.拉特纳答复:“大家有可能让这种企业正处在不错的情况,至少能够在会计上拥立。

”Detroit’s sunniest optimists even say that, when the world shifts, the carmakers will thrive: fat operating margins will be available for managing autonomous fleets of taxis and buses or providing insurance. Ford forecasts it will make margins of more than 20 per cent from these services.底特律最消极的人员乃至答复,当全球产生变化时,汽车制造商将迅猛发展:管理方法无人驾驶的士和大巴或获得保险营销将获得丰厚的运营利润率。福特预测分析,该企业将从这种服务项目中获得高达20%的利润率。Few endorse these estimates. Max Warburton, analyst at Bernstein, argues: “Precisely none of these activities makes 20 per cent margins for anyone, anywhere.”彻底没有人抵制这种预测分析。

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)投资分析师马克斯?沃克拉伦斯(Max Warburton)称其:“这种主题活动显而易见不有可能搭建20%的利润率,对一切地域的一切一家公司全是这般。”It is understandable that such profits would appeal to carmakers, whose operating margins range from 2 per cent at Ford to 8 per cent at Daimler. Yet their puny margins offer some defence: why would tech titans such as Alphabet, with an operating margin above 26 per cent, start making cars?能够讲解的是,这种盈利将更有汽车制造商,现阶段他们的运营利润率接近2%(福特)到8%(戴姆勒公司)。殊不知,这种较低得简直的利润率获得了一些防御:运营利润率高达26%的Alphabet等科技巨擘为什么要刚开始生产制造汽车?Rather than cut out the incumbents, collaboration is more likely. Tech companies might provide the core technology, mainly the software, for self-driving cars while the carmakers stick to their capital-intensive, low-margin business.更为有可能经常会出现的是协作,而不是替代知名汽车制造商。科技有限公司能够为无人驾驶汽车获得关键技术,主要是手机软件,而汽车制造商将再次做外部规模经济、较低利润率的业务流程。

欧洲杯线上买球

Waymo, the Alphabet subsidiary which has racked up more than 3M autonomous miles, has a partnership with Fiat Chrysler, which is supplying 600 minivans. Waymo has also linked up with Lyft, the app that competes with Uber, and Avis Budget. Semi-autonomous trips are expected before the end of the year.Alphabet子公司Waymo的无人驾驶里程数已高达三百万英里,该公司与菲亚特汽车菲亚特(Fiat Chrysler)协作,由后面一种获得600辆小货车。Waymo已和与uber(Uber)市场竞争的运用于Lyft及其Avis Budget协作。预估在今年年底以前将开售全自动司机行程安排。

The unknown is Apple, which is working on cars and does not typically put its software in another company’s hardware. If Tesla can succeed in producing vehicles at scale then surely so could the world’s richest company. But it would require more daring than has been seen at Apple since the death of Steve Jobs.一个不知道的要素是iPhone,因此以着眼于产品研发轿车的该公司一般会将自身的手机软件放置另一家公司的硬件配置中。假如特斯拉汽车的纯电动车必须成功搭建批量生产,那麼这个全世界最富有的公司认可也可以。

但相比史提夫?史蒂夫乔布斯(Steve Jobs)过世后大家看到的iPhone,该公司务必呈现更为多胆量。Traditional carmakers cannot afford to relax but they should be wary of rash moves. Incumbents can sometimes make the technological leap and still come a cropper.传统式汽车制造商没法放宽,但她们也理应当心,不必鲁莽行事。

知名公司有时候搭建了技术性发展,却仍有可能结束。Studebaker, a horse-drawn carriage company of the 19th century, became a successful carmaker in the 20th. But it continued paying a large dividend after the 1929 stock market crash, invested heavily in new vehicles and pulled off a big acquisition. This all fatally damaged the balance sheet, the company collapsed in March 1933 and three months later Albert Erskine, Studebaker’s president, took a revolver to the bathroom and shot himself through the heart.十九世纪的牛车公司斯蒂贝克(Studebaker)在二十世纪沦落一家成功的汽车制造商。但在1929年股市大跌后仍以后交纳较高股利分配,趁机项目投资新车,还顺利完成了一笔规模性回收。这一切给负债表带来恐怖损伤,该公司于1933年三月破产倒闭,3个月后,斯蒂贝克首席总裁阿尔伯特?厄斯金(Albert Erskine)带著一把手枪返回淋浴室,向着自身的心血管进了枪。

Above the news of Mr Erskine’s death on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune is an unrelated cartoon, which provides a reminder that technological forecasts are seldom on the money. A man proclaims that within 25 years indestructible planes powered wirelessly from the earth will transport passengers at 1,000mph. The caption reads: “Today no one considers the most fantastic prediction to be improbable.”在《芝加哥论坛报》(Chicago Daily Tribune)主页上厄斯金自杀的信息上边是一张与此无关的动漫漫画,它警示大家高新科技预测分析非常少是精确的。在动漫漫画上,一位小伙宣称,在25年之内,从地球上无线网络供电系统的无坚不摧的飞机场将以1000英里的车速载人航行中。题目是:“现如今,没人强调最荒诞的预测分析不是有可能的。


本文关键词:欧洲杯线上买球,电动,无人,驾驶,汽车,的,未来,Cars,attracted

本文来源:欧洲杯线上买球-www.gzdaibo.com

Copyright © 2009-2021 www.gzdaibo.com. 欧洲杯线上买球科技 版权所有 备案号:ICP备82644005号-8

在线客服 联系方式 二维码

服务热线

088-600118602

扫一扫,关注我们